“What are my chances?” is the first question almost everyone asks before IVF. The honest answer depends far more on your age than on anything else – and official US data lets us put real numbers on it. This guide uses the latest clinic-level data that every US fertility clinic must report to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), covering cycles started in 2022 at 458 clinics.
Quick answer: for patients using their own eggs, about 50% of egg retrievals lead to a live birth under age 35, falling to about 36% at 35–37, 23% at 38–40 and around 8% over 40. Using donor eggs, success rates stay high regardless of the recipient’s age – around 45–53% per transfer.
IVF success rates by age (US, own eggs)
| Age | Live births per intended egg retrieval | Live births per embryo transfer |
|---|---|---|
| Under 35 | 49.7% | 49.1% |
| 35–37 | 36.3% | 46.0% |
| 38–40 | 23.1% | 41.3% |
| Over 40 | 7.7% | 24.9% |
Source: CDC 2022 Final ART Summary. Averages across all reporting clinics, weighted by number of retrievals or transfers. “Per intended retrieval” counts every embryo transfer from that retrieval, including later frozen transfers.
Why there are two different success rates
Per egg retrieval is the best measure of your overall chance from one IVF cycle. It starts counting from the moment you begin stimulation medication and includes cycles that are cancelled or produce no usable embryos.
Per embryo transfer only counts cycles where an embryo was actually transferred. It looks higher – especially at older ages – because the cycles that didn’t produce an embryo are left out. Over 40, for example, about one in four transfers leads to a baby, but fewer than one in ten retrievals do, because many retrievals don’t produce a healthy embryo to transfer.
When you compare clinics, always check which measure you are looking at. Our IVF clinic rankings by city use the per-retrieval measure, adjusted for age.
Your chances over more than one cycle
Many people need more than one egg retrieval. CDC data on new patients (people starting IVF for the first time) shows how chances build up:
| Age | Live birth after 1st retrieval | Live birth after all retrievals that year |
|---|---|---|
| Under 35 | 53.3% | 60.8% |
| 35–37 | 39.8% | 50.1% |
| 38–40 | 25.3% | 35.5% |
| Over 40 | 8.1% | 13.1% |
Source: CDC 2022 Final ART Summary, new patients with no prior ART cycles; clinic results averaged and weighted by retrievals. These figures only cover retrievals within the reporting period, so cumulative chances over several years of treatment are higher.
Why age matters so much
As we get older, the number of eggs in the ovaries falls and a growing share of eggs have chromosomal abnormalities. That means fewer eggs are collected per cycle, fewer develop into healthy embryos, and more embryos fail to implant or end in miscarriage. Sperm quality also declines with age, but much more gradually, so the female partner’s age is the single biggest factor in IVF success when using your own eggs.
IVF success rates with donor eggs
Because donor eggs come from younger women, success rates don’t fall with the recipient’s age in the same way:
- Fresh donor eggs: about 53% of transfers led to a live birth
- Frozen embryos created from donor eggs: about 45% per transfer
- Donated embryos: about 42% per transfer
Source: CDC 2022 Final ART Summary, weighted by number of transfers.
If you’re considering donor eggs, see our directory of egg donor agencies and egg banks by state.
Other things that affect your chances
- Diagnosis: blocked tubes or male factor infertility often have better IVF outcomes than diminished ovarian reserve.
- Ovarian reserve: AMH levels and antral follicle count help predict how many eggs you’re likely to produce.
- Lifestyle: smoking, very high or very low body weight and heavy alcohol use are linked to lower success rates.
- The clinic: lab quality and experience vary. Clinic results differ even after adjusting for age – which is why it’s worth comparing clinics near you.
How to check a specific clinic’s success rates
Every listing on our site that reports to the CDC shows that clinic’s results by age group next to the US average. You can also compare clinics in your area in our best IVF clinics by city guides, or browse all fertility clinics by state. Remember that a clinic treating more complex cases may show lower rates, so ask each clinic about its results for patients like you.
Frequently asked questions
What is the success rate of IVF on the first try?
For people starting IVF for the first time with their own eggs, about 53% of those under 35 had a baby from their first egg retrieval, compared with about 40% at 35–37, 25% at 38–40 and 8% over 40 (CDC, 2022).
What is a good IVF success rate for a clinic?
Compare a clinic with the US average for your age group: around 50% per retrieval under 35 and 36% at 35–37. Clinics above average for your age group are performing well, but small clinics can have results that vary a lot from year to year.
Is IVF worth it after 40?
Chances with your own eggs are much lower after 40 – under 10% per retrieval on average – but they are not zero, and donor eggs offer much higher success rates. A fertility specialist can give you a personalised estimate based on your tests.
How much does IVF cost?
Typically $15,000–$30,000 per cycle including medication. See our full IVF cost guide, including which states require insurance to cover IVF.
Sources
- CDC – 2022 Final Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) Summary (published December 2024)
- CDC – Assisted Reproductive Technology
This article is general information, not medical advice. Speak to a fertility specialist about your own chances.
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